Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
